Will U.S. Unemployment Hit 10.2% by Mid-2028?

Context:

On February 23, 2026, Citrini Research published a speculative essay titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.” https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic

The article describes a hypothetical June 2028 scenario in which rapid advances in AI coincide with severe macroeconomic stress, including a U.S. unemployment rate printing 10.2%.

This market isolates that specific claim and allows participants to assess whether the U.S. unemployment rate reaches or exceeds 10.2% by the data available prior to June 30, 2028.

Rule:

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in the Employment Situation Report for May 2028.

The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS at

https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm

,

specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.

This market resolves YES if the U-3 unemployment rate for May 2028 is 10.2% or higher, and NO otherwise.

The data for May 2028 is expected to be released in early June 2028. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not be considered for the purposes of this market.

If no data for May 2028 is released by the date the June 2028 Employment Situation Report is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the last available official U-3 unemployment figure published by the BLS.

Note: The resolution source reports unemployment to one decimal place. This level of precision will be used when resolving the market.