Polymarket vs Kalshi — Who IPOs First?

This market will resolve based on which company — Polymarket (Adventure One QSS Inc., or any successor entity primarily operating the Polymarket prediction market platform) or Kalshi (Kalshi Inc., or any successor entity primarily operating the Kalshi event-contract exchange) — first completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) on a recognized stock exchange.

"IPO" refers to the first sale of stock to the public on any recognized stock exchange (including NYSE, Nasdaq, or any other major recognized exchange). This includes traditional IPOs, direct listings, and de-SPAC transactions resulting in public trading of the company's equity.

Resolution requires that public trading of the relevant company's shares has commenced. The "first" company is determined by the first day of public trading on the exchange — not by S-1 filing date, pricing date, or announcement date.

If both companies' shares begin public trading on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve 50-50 between "Polymarket" and "Kalshi."

If neither Polymarket nor Kalshi has completed an IPO by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Neither by end of 2028."

If Polymarket is acquired by an already-public company (including ICE/Intercontinental Exchange) before its own IPO, and Kalshi has not yet IPO'd, this market will resolve to "Kalshi" only if Kalshi subsequently completes an IPO by December 31, 2028; otherwise, "Neither by end of 2028."

If Kalshi is acquired by an already-public company before its own IPO, and Polymarket has not yet IPO'd, the symmetric rule applies.

A token launch (e.g., $POLY or any other affiliated token) does NOT constitute an IPO for the purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting (Bloomberg, Reuters, The Wall Street Journal, The Information, Financial Times), the relevant exchange's official listing page, and SEC EDGAR filings.